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Welcome back to Bootleg! On today’s daily episode within our annual summer preview series, Brett and E.J. take a deep dive into the Washington Commanders and explain why they should not be taken lightly – even within their slaughterhouse of a division with three other playoff teams in it.
Time Stamps:
0:01 It’s Commanders day!
4:30 2022 Effectiveness Summary
9:40 Commanders Bootleg Power Score
10:58 The Schematic Summary
30:39 The new and old power structure in D.C.
39:49 Terry and Jahan are being disrespected
48:48 Free agency gains and losses
53:14 The Commanders’ (mostly) good Draft class
1:07:54 Report card and record predictions
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Twitter: @BrettKollmann and @FootballEJ
Instagram: @brett_kollmann
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Regardless of how you feel about Forbes, adding him & Quan to a talented young secondary with another season of development should be an up arrow, also the offense getting Eric Bieniemy over Scott Turner, The OL improvement( can't be worst with all the injuries we had, & how poorly the backups played early last season it's gotta go up) & at QB, unproven or not, Wentz & Heinicke were horrible, but Sam at his VERY LEAST gives us both their best traits, on the field at the same time. Heinicke's Mobility, Escapability & Moxie with durability, & vision to actually make better use of it, Along with the arm strength & willingness to push the ball down the field Wentz had with a quicker release, better accuracy & ball placement. I think the Sam/EB combo is good for at least 1 more big completion(+30 yards), a little more than half a TD (call it 0.5), slightly fewer INTs (better ball placement & Accuracy/EB's offense call it 0.3) Plus 3 times as many QB rushing yards all per Game over our production with Scott Turner/Heinicke/Wentz last season. I think the OL help, With a creative RB like EB scheming it up, Sam picking up a lot of yards & keeping defenses honest with his arm the run game will improve by 0.5 YPC too. I think those are very realistic upgrades we can expect over what we endured last season that will add up in a massive way that no one expects that will put us well within the top 12 offenses, to go along with a top 5 defense, giving them a lot of extra opportunities.
You add +30 yards 0.6 TD & -0.3 INTs passing, & 3 times the QB rushing yards +0.5YPC per game and
we'd Average 255 passing, 2 TDs, 0.6 INTs with 34 rushing yards for Howell Per game with 4.5 YPC rushing.
In 17 games Sam would have 4335 passing yards 34 Tds, 11 Ints, 578 rushing along 5-6 rushing TDS,
The team rushing yards would depend on if EB is gonna follow a KC frequency, or something closer to ours from last year a swing of 1876 to 2421. I think we can easily take a similar jump to the one Philly took last season, they went from 4-11-1 to 9-8, to 13-3. We went 7-10- 8-8-1, time to jump up to 11+ There are 13 winnable games on the schedule with 14 being possible with our history of having a 1-game advantage VS Aaron Rodgers. SCREW THE NAME CHANGE TOO, IF it's not back to the OG THEN HELLL NO. Commanders is better than a lot, they just need to build positive history. It's on par with Vikings, Raiders, Patriots, Chiefs & Buccaneers
No hate on Nick Gates, but I really wanna see Stromberg starting this year. outside of him being a few inches shorter than Gates possibly helping Sam see the middle of the field easier, Stromberg was my fave Center in the draft. I think Steve Avila for his size and versatility was the only guy I'd have taken over him. He was 2 years younger than Schmitz, a lil bigger & a better athlete & IMO not that far behind him technically. 33in arms is nice at Center too, especially from a guy that's only 6'3 with that natural leverage. Already kind of dreading having 6'5 Nick Gates in front of Sam, 6'6 Joe Tippman was a definite no for me, also disappointed that a guy touted for his athleticism didn't test at all, clearing the way for Ricky to have an easy path to the top RAS score at the position in the class.
I strongly disagree with your assessment of Forbes & his INTs, the Ark Endzone one was a full extension, Leaping turning snag of a ball that would have hit the WR in the chest right when he crossed the goal line. In the Arizona game, he didn't get beat he just read the QB & tracked the ball better than ANY of Arizona's WRs to be at the spot & touch more passes than any of them did. His INTs against Tulsa & Memphis were the same, just better tracking & attacking than the WRs. He came off his guy to snag a ball thrown to a guy that burnt his teammate in Tulsa for a 90-yard Pick 6. His INT against LSU was awesome & rare, those sideline rainbows are usually unstoppable, but he used his speed to get parallel and jumped at the right time to pick it off before it could get over him. He had a High-point endzone INT against LSU where he just tracks & Attacks better than their WRs off a hail-mary type play. He jumps a comeback route for an easy pick, & then baits the QB to make a leaping INT that he takes house against Missouri. He's had a few lucky bounces, but 90% of his picks have been from reading & tracking, with some length & leaping ability sprinkled in. At the end of the day, he's looking great in training camp, and at the time of the draft, analytics nerds at PFF(Steve & Sam) had him take the top CB spot over Devon Witherspoon according to their draft model.
I’m a life long fan and never lost my fandom for this team. I think we are way better then people are saying we will beat the Giants twice this year but the Cowboys and Eagles are loaded. We will have to win some tough games outside the division. ATL, Seattle, Bears, and Rams. We have to beat all those teams and then maybe we get the 7th spot.
This defense will be very strong. offense just needs to be slightly above average for this team to be really tough to beat. I’m confident EB is the right man… our offense was dreadful last year schematically so if it’s just 10% better it’s already a better team. EB will bring a lot more than 10%. The only thing that can sink the season if is Howell is bad, but that’s okay. Draft high next year.
Love these deep dives, appreciate it. Emmanuel Forbes is risky but is passing the eye test against Terry McLaurin and Dotson so far in camp
I think kj Henry is out playing chase young
Jahan is going to out produce terry
I think you will be surprised by Forbes
So true Ej Chase Young kicks the IR List’s Ass every year. When it comes to kicking ass in the rehab room no one doesn’t like Chase Young. What a dog
They are picking the wrong one to sleep on. Yall hit it spot on👍🏻
34 starting QBs in 32 seasons. Yawn
we need a new name, go back to something simple and clean like Washington FC (football club) or something heavy like Warriors (come out and play), Redwolves (play on nWo) or maybe Redhawks.
Same blah blah blah as every preseason.
Ranked 8th in ppg allowed at 20.2 that seems like a stat that should be included too just sayin
It probably wouldn't matter since it was only a year but in Vic Fangio's first year as a linebackers coach for the Saints in 86 Del Rio was a linebacker on that team
Commenting is good for the algorithm
The obvious downside of the end of the Snyder era is that a competent team and competent ownership would give the local sports radio talk shows a lot less to talk about. When they were stinky garbage there was always something to get riled up about and have a nice energetic show.
As a Giants fan, I loved hearing the stories of the 70s and 80s when Washington, Dallas, NY and Philly would make Super Bowls. The coin toss that was the NFC East could return this decade and I’m beyond excited. Even if that means my Giants got competition, it’s more fun that way. Can’t beat Washington every year lol
I hope they change the name back to Redskins. So much history with that name and franchise and the only people offended by that name we’re white people😂
Thomas is never never healthy and Gibson will b better for sure in ppr
Only complaint is I wish talked more about what players your drafting or shld draft in redraft leagues or even best ball not just values.
Giants coming next!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I keep hearing great stuff about Sam Howell I think I'll b targeting him as second QB in some spots or in superflex
I have gotten more optimistic about Washington as the offseason has gone on. I’m a big Scary Terry fan and they could win ten games if everything works. The problem is, they could also be a bottom 3 team. There are big question marks about Howell, Bienemy as an OC, and in my opinion the offensive line because that line looks below average to me.
If Washington actually won 11 regular season games, it would the the first time since their Super Bowl winning season in 1991. In my entire life, I've never seeen them win more than 10 game or even appear in a NFC championship game 😥